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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 2 yards (27-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model