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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model