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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-C.Fejedelem. 42-C.Fejedelem up the middle to CLE 48 for 6 yards (35-J.Whitehead; 25-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model