Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(3:59) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 42-C.Fejedelem, Center-47-C.Hughlett, recovered by CLE-25-D.Hilliard at CLE 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.71 EP
48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model