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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model