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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model