Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 8-M.Darr punts 55 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF. PENALTY on NE-11-J.Edelman, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at NE 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.51 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model