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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 29

New England Patriots 24 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model