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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP