Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

(11:05) 8-M.Darr punts 35 yards to NE 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.14 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model