4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 32

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 25th TD pass of season, ties Favre & Moon for 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model