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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model