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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 3 at the 25
Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 14
What Actually Happened
(2:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 16-R.Foster.
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.18 EP
- 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.39 EP
KICK
+0.97 EP
- 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
- 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
-0.73 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
