Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:35) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model