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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 8-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 12 yards (57-L.Alexander). PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP