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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 73

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 4 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model