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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree. Penalty on BAL-15-M.Crabtree, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model