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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to BAL 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-11-G.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP