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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model