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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP