4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model