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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to WAS 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris to WAS 36 for 5 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model