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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model