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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to WAS 44, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model