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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 40

Washington Commanders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to JAX 5, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-51-S.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model