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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 66

Washington Commanders 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to JAX 11, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 12 for 1 yard (39-A.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model