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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris pushed ob at WAS 15 for 6 yards (26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model