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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 15

Washington Commanders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model