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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 78

Washington Commanders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:23) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to JAX 26, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model