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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 90

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to WAS 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-M.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 18. 13-M.Harris to WAS 18 for no gain (43-Q.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.15 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model