Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 60

Washington Commanders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(1:55) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to JAX 2, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model