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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 2-K.Forbath 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model