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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 84

Washington Commanders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to WAS 46, Center-55-A.East, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson. Punt was partially blocked by 55 of Jacksonville.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 42, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP