4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model