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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 73

Washington Commanders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to JAX 24, Center-55-A.East. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 33 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model