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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 4

Tennessee Titans 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 4-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.03 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP