Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-J.Davis to NYG 14 for 4 yards (41-B.Trawick, 51-W.Compton). NYG-30-A.Hamilton was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-45-U.Eligwe, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.00 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model