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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 66

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to TEN 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.70 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model