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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-J.Davis to NYG 17 for -2 yards (48-B.Brinkley, 88-L.Stocker).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model