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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to TEN 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 40 for 8 yards (45-U.Eligwe).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model