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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model