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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 46

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to TEN 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model