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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model