4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model