Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(7:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to TB 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model