4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Godwin (29-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.99 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model