4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model