4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP