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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 5-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP