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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 7
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6
What Actually Happened
(5:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TB 2 for 5 yards (30-J.Shaw).
The Three Options
GO
+3.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK
+2.08 EP
- 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
